Noeleen Heyzer, the Executive Secretary of ESCAP, observes that the government of Myanmar has announced it will hold a general election on 7 November, the first to be held since 1990. This may provide an opportunity for Myanmar's military-led government to improve the country's political governance. She notes that United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has urged the government to honour its publicly stated commitments to hold inclusive, free and fair elections, noting that any transition to democracy should also include the release of all political prisoners without delay. In addition to a possible move toward a civilian-led government, it is also likely that improvements in political governance will present significant opportunities for economic and social advancement for the country, for an emerging middle class, and especially for the estimated one-third of Burma's 50 million people currently living in poverty.
Burma: After the elections, what?
The Lowy Interpreter (Australia) - 31 August 2010
Andrew Selth, Research Fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute in Queensland, Australia, observes that if all goes according to plan, on 7 November Burma's ruling council will hold nation-wide elections for what it is calling a 'genuine multi-party discipline-flourishing democracy'. The creation of an elaborate, multi-layered parliamentary system is clearly aimed at consolidating and perpetuating military rule. However, as the French political thinker Alexis de Tocqueville noted more than 150 years ago, once they are begun, such transitions can have unintended consequences.
Note by Network Myanmar: A thoughtful essay which draws attention to the structural changes in decision-making which the new administration is sure to bring and which could open up political space in Myanmar in unexpected ways.
All change in the Burmese Army command structure
Financial Times - 30 August 2010
The reported major reshuffle in the Burmese Army and the expected transition to civilian politics by a number of serving officers could open up fissures in the monolithic army structure as the two main pro-regime political parties vie for power.
A possible new army command structure
Democracy groups struggle to challenge Myanmar regime
Agence France-Presse - 30 August 2010
Some details about the expected line-up of candidates for the 7 November elections.
Manifesto of the Chin National Party
Chinland Guardian - 29 August 2010
An unofficial translation of the Manifesto of the Chin National Party, one of two registered Chin political parties contesting the State/Region elections. An intriguing, bold and imaginative document.
Myanmar reshuffles military ranks before November vote
Wall Street Journal - 29 August 2010
Note by Network Myanmar: Speculation grows about the significance of the recently reported retirement of senior military officers, inspiring quite different interpretations by journalists and analysts. We recommend caution in reaching hasty conclusions, as the outcome may in fact not be known until after the elections, the Union Parliament has has been convened, the three presidential candidates nominated and the final choice made.
Reshuffle "biggest in decades"
Agence France-Presse - 28 August 2010
Myanmar Army reshuffle ahead of the elections
Agence France-Presse - 27 August 2010
The agency reports the resignation of senior military staff in the run-up to the elections, but does not confirm earlier reports of the resignations of Senior-General Than Shwe and his deputy General Maung Aye. At least 70 senior posts however are understood to have changed hands.
Note by Network Myanmar: No announcement of any changes has yet been made in the Myanmar media. We will refrain from comment until the facts are known.
Myanmar opposition in disarray as polls approach
Reuters - 26 August 2010
Reuters video report on the elections in Myanmar
Reuters - 26 August 2010
Indian Government sees no nuclear threat from Myanmar
Manorama Online - 26 August 2010
There is no nuclear threat from Myanmar, External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna said today in response to a Question in the Rajya Sabha (Upper House), adding that strict vigil was being maintained and admitting that nuclear weapons in neighbouring countries were a matter of concern. "Myanmar asserts that it has no nuclear programme on its anvil. The Government of India will have to believe," Krishna said while replying to a supplementary. The minister, however, added that information was being gathered through intelligence networks as well. "We will also gather through our own intelligence what is happening. The government always monitors development closely because it concerns our security," Krishna said.
Note by Network Myanmar: In the light of the high level of defence cooperation between India and the US, not least in the nuclear field, it is reasonable to conclude that India would benefit from exchanges of intelligence with the US on an issue which is of vital interest to Indian security. The response in the Upper House no doubt reflects assurances received from the US on this issue.
US-Myanmar talks practically on hold
Press Trust of India - 25 August 2010
"I do not project any discussions with Burma in the near future. I can't say there is a time to any particular date," a senior US Administration official told reporters yesterday, even as he was quick to assert that the policy of engagement is still in place. The official said the US will be consulting other countries to determine their views on a commission of inquiry and see if they share their views. Earlier in the day, the State Department spokesman reiterated that the US will back the creation of an international commission to investigate alleged war crimes by Burma's military junta. "We believe that a properly structured international commission of inquiry that would examine allegations of serious violations of international law in Burma would be warranted and appropriate. And we are examining how to best proceed on this initiative."
Note by Network Myanmar: It is now clear that press reports of a leaked US decision to press for a commission of inquiry only reflected an intention in principle, without any defined policy on how best to proceed. The Security Council is a non-starter as any Resolution would meet the same fate as the draft presented in January 2007 - a veto by China and Russia. UN Special Rapporteur Quintana, appointed by the Human Rights Council, somewhat surprisingly did not suggest that the Council should set up an enquiry, but invited "UN institutions" generally to consider the idea. Assuming that the UN Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) do not see such a commission as within their mandate, that really leaves only a UN General Assembly Resolution instructing the UN Secretary-General to set up an enquiry of some kind. But the annual UNGA Resolutions on Burma/Myanmar are now contested by voting, and the last three secured only 86, 80 and 83 votes (2009, 2008, 2007) which was sufficient to get the Resolution adopted but is less than 50% of the UN membership of 192. As UNGA Resolutions are not binding on member states, that would mean - assuming a similar voting pattern in 2010 - that more than 50% of members would decline to cooperate. Such a commission, however it might describe itself, would not be taken seriously . The US would be well aware of this, but pressures "to do something", however ineffectual, are strong. That was why in January 2007 a draft Resolution was presented to the UN Security Council even though China and Russia had warned in advance that they would cast a veto.
Some 20 independent candidates expected to stand in the elections
Myanmar Times - 23-29 August 2010
Details about up to 20 independent candidates who plan to stand for election in the Pyithu Hluttaw (Lower House).
Tourist arrivals soar in first half of 2010
Myanmar Times - 23-29 August 2010
Tourist numbers are up again this year, according to figures released by the Ministry of Hotels and Tourism. During the first seven months of 2010, 161,322 visitors entered the country, 37.4 percent more than in the same period last year. The figure for 2009 - 227,400 visitors - was itself a 25% increase on the 170,812 recorded for the year 2008. Travel professionals are predicting a busy and successful October-to-March tourist season, despite some cancellations being reported following the August 13 announcement that an election would be held on 7 November 2010.
Myanmar to file human rights report to UN next year
People's Daily Online - 23 August 2010
Myanmar has completed the first draft of a report about the country's human rights status for submission to the United Nations Human Rights Council in February 2011, the Yangon Weekly Eleven News reported today. The draft of the Myanmar human rights report is yet to be finalized and translated into English version for submission.
Note by Network Myanmar: The appearance of this report in the People's Daily Online may be seen as an oblique expression by China of reservations about the proposed "Commission of Enquiry" which five Western countries have so far declared interest in supporting. The White House is expected to confirm their support this week, but it is widely assumed that the US decision is related to frustration with their engagement policy with Myanmar, declining ratings by President Obama prior to the mid-term elections and a wish to clear the decks of anything which might impact their political fortunes, taken into account broad congressional support for a tough policy on, and the marginal nature of US interests in Myanmar. However, because of the US wish to re-engage with Asian countries after years of neglect, it seems unlikely that the US will wish to press for precipitate action which could well come up against Asian resistance. US relations with Myanmar may be expendable, but not with other countries in Asia.
Veteran Myanmar politician says Government party will win
Associated Press - 22 August 2010
Thu Wai, chairman of the newly formed Democratic Party, has said the challenger parties can field candidates in less than half of the national and regional constituencies. But the junta's backing gives the Union Solidarity and Development Party, led by Prime Minister Thein Sein, access to money and a national presence, and the party is widely expected to receive the most votes. The November 7 elections are the first in Myanmar in two decades. "By creating obstacles to other political parties before the election, it won't be necessary to cheat or rig votes in the election as the USDP is getting the upper hand. Thus the voting (itself) will be free and fair," Thu Wai said.
Numbers stacked against Myanmar opposition, party leaders say
Deutsche Presse-Agentur - 22 August 2010
Myanmar's pro-democracy parties are set to field candidates in only around half of the constituencies in November's election, due to the limited time and resources available for preparation, political sources have said.
Is Burma on the verge of transformation?
The Washington Post - 21 August 2010
David Steinberg, Professor of Asian Studies at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, doubts whether new US sanctions and endorsing a Commission of Enquiry into human rights abuses will in fact improve the lot of the Burmese people.
Note by Network Myanmar: Derek Tonkin asks the same question in a regional context in his latest 'Burmese Perspectives'. He warns of a polarisation again of Asian and Western opinion on how best to handle Myanmar, undermining the political convergence which has recently been achieved.
Why a UN probe of Burma is a crucial step: The Washington Post - 20 August 2010
White House v State Department: Commission of Enquiry
US State Department Press Briefing - 19 August 2010
At the Daily Press Briefing yesterday, the State Department Spokesman Philip Crowley made it clear, in response to a question, that there had to his knowledge been no statement from the White House about President Obama's support for a UN Commission of Enquiry on Myanmar, even though this had been widely reported in the international press, including comment from the National Security Council. This premature release has induced persons, who might otherwise have restrained from comment, to come out in support of the US "decision", including the Vice Chairman of the former National League for Democracy. The White House confirmed on 20 August 2010 that no statement had yet been issued but probably would be next week at the earliest.
Note by Network Myanmar: The unfortunate way in which US intentions have been prematurely revealed without State Department approval on the timing may influence Asian countries to have doubts about the wisdom of the planned US action so close to the elections. This could harden attitudes among the future rulers of Myanmar and polarise Asian and Western opinion on how best to influence the new administration in Myanmar.
USDP opens offices nationwide for Myanmar elections
Deutsche Presse-Agentur - 20 August 2010
Myanmar's main pro-military political party on Friday opened hundreds of offices nationwide in preparation for the November 7 general election.
A new day beckons, sort of
The Economist - 19 August 2010
'The Economist' sees the poll as a watershed. Businessmen are bracing themselves for a transition from the certainties of military rule to a civilian-flavoured administration. For the departing generals, privatisation looks to be a retirement plan of sorts. The 77-year-old leader of the junta, General Than Shwe, wants to hand over gradually to younger men. Yet the new day may yet look rather like the old one.
US backs Myanmar monitor as diplomatic tack frays
Wall Street Journal - 19 August 2010
The Obama administration has decided to back efforts to create an international commission investigating alleged human-rights violations in Myanmar. The U.S. could propose a UN-led investigative commission one of two ways if it wants to avoid a probable veto by China at the U.N. Security Council. The U.S. could introduce a resolution in either the U.N. Human Rights Council in Geneva or the General Assembly in New York that would request either body to establish such a commission or have either body ask U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to do so. But Mr. Ban doesn't have authority on his own to authorize such a commission, a U.N. official said. Nor does U.S. support mean an inquiry will occur.
Note by Network Myanmar: The US move is a result of their frustration because offers to negotiate an end to sanctions through political reform have not been taken up. It was however widely predicted that such "conditionality", imposed by congressional pressures, would be most unlikely to achieve results. If the West is again seen to be ganging up on Burma, Asian counties are only likely to rally round in support, thus perpetuating the polarisation in West versus Asian policies on Myanmar.
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